The TV Season Begins: Part 2

In this post, I am going to review my predictions for some of TV's new shows and discuss their first week ratings, and the likeliness that they will last a full year.

 FOX:
What I said last week:
""Ben and Kate" and "The Mindy Project" are two new female driven sitcoms debuting on FOX this season. Both have received critical acclaim, with "Mindy" taking an edge due to it having Mindy Kaling from "The Office" staring. I expect "Mindy" to succeed and recieve a full 22 episode season, but I find "Ben and Kate" to be another generic relationship sitcom, and those have not done well on broadcast television in recent years."

Now:
As I predicted, "Mindy" preformed better than "Ben and Kate", even though it had less support from FOX. "Ben and Kate" debuted in between two new episodes of "New Girl", a move common in the industry. While both episodes of "New Girl" had over 5 million viewers, "Ben and Kate" struggled to average over 4 million viewers. "Mindy", which aired after "New Girl" was over for the night, fared better with 4.75 million viewers, and also skewed towards a younger audience, which helps with advertisers. I still expect "Ben and Kate" to last only 13 episodes, and for "Mindy" to get a full 22 episode season.

ABC:
What I said last week:
""Last Resort" is this year's most critically acclaimed new drama. Staring Andre Braugher, a veteran of the TV industry, and created by Shawn Ryan, creator of "The Shield", a famous drama from the mid-2000s. This show will be in a tough timeslot, against "The Big Bang Theory", "The X Factor" and a few NBC sitcoms, and although it will be great, TV audiences avoid intelligent serialized dramas, including last year's "Awake" and Ryan's own "The Chicago Code" from a few years ago. I want this show to succeed, but I doubt it receives more than 13 episodes before being cancelled."

Now:
"Last Resort" had an uneven debut. It received 9 million viewers, about the same as "The X Factor" on the same night and time, but it skewed towards older viewers. It only received a 2.2 18-49 rating, meaning only 2.5 million of the 9 million viewers were in the target demographic. That number will likely drop in coming weeks and doesn't bode well for "Last Resort"'s future beyond 13 episodes.


CBS:
What I said last week:
""Elementary" is a new program that has divided the internet community. It is a modern interpretation of Sherlock Holmes, one that the fanbase is not proud of for two major reasons: For starters, there is "Sherlock" on BBC, a BAFTA winning drama that perfectly tells the tale of what Sherlock would be like in modern day times. Secondly, the creators of "Elementary" gave John Watson a sex change, and she is now Joan Watson,  as played by Lucy Liu. Despite the hatred of the fanbase though, people are drawn to the Sherlock Holmes cannon, and this show will likely become a multi-year franchise for CBS, even if it has little to do with the classic Sherlock Holmes tales."

Now:
"Elementary" had a fantastic start for CBS.  With 13 million viewers, it was the third most watched program, and the second most watched drama of the night (the other shows with more viewers than "Elementary" were also on CBS). It's premier viewership was virtually identical to fellow CBS show "Person of Interest"'s debut from a year ago on the same night. Like "Last Resort" on ABC, "Elementary" is also an older viewer skewing show, with a 3.1 18-49 rating, but that is still enough young viewers to believe this show will last a full first year.

Sources:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/26/tv-ratings-tuesday-new-girl-returns-down-ncis-beats-the-voice-for-top-spot-the-mindy-project-vegas-ben-and-kate-premieres/150232/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/28/tv-ratings-thursday-greys-anatomy-returns-up-big-bang-theory-steady-with-last-year-premieres-for-elementary-last-resort/150554/