Update (Wednesday October 10, 2012): Today, CBS cancelled "Made In Jersey", making it the first official failure of the Fall 2012 TV season.
Who want''s to play a game? It's called "Which TV Network Admits Fault First". It happens every year, the major broadcast networks wait as long as possible before cancelling a show, hoping that one of the other networks makes the first move. As we enter the third week of the 2012 TV season, it is becoming clear which shows are not long for this world. Here are my predictions for the first cancellation from each network:
FOX: This is the easiest one to pick. Last year, FOX's Monday night was anchored by "House", which ended back in May. It's replacement? "The Mob Doctor", a new medical drama that has flopped on arrival. It's Monday's least watched show across all of television, and the biggest disappointment since ABC's "My Generation" a few years ago. With only 3.5 million people watching, I don't expect this show to last past this week.
ABC: ABC is the hardest to predict, because while they don't have any shows that are standing out in the ratings (other than Modern Family), they don't have any incredible flops either. Their ratings are very similar throughout the week. Their three lowest preforming dramas are "Private Practice", which is rumored to be in it's final season, "Castle", which despite being watched by over 10 million people can only muster up a 1.9 ratings point in the key demographic, and "Last Resort", the new and acclaimed program with around 8 million viewers. I don't think ABC will cancel any of their shows until at least November, as all are preforming around expectations.
NBC: Before the season even started, NBC "cancelled" two of it's longest running programs, "The Office" and "30 Rock" which are now in their final years. They also gave death sentences to "Community" and "Up All Night" by only renewing them for 13 episodes and changing it's showrunner. Their weakest performer so far this year in terms of critics and viewership is "Animal Practice", which only resulted in a 1.5 ratings point last week. I don't see that show lasting more than it's initial order.
CBS: By far, CBS's weakest show so far this year is "Made In Jersey", which is disappointing even by the lowered standards of Friday night. With only a 0.8 ratings point last week, this show won't make it past this Fall, much less the full TV season. CBS's "Vegas" on Tuesday nights is also a weak performer by CBS's standards. It pulled a 2.1 ratings point on a night where CBS averaged a 2.9 ratings point, and was only able to retain 55% of the audience from it's lead in (NCIS:LA).
"The Mob Doctor", "Castle" Ratings:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/02/tv-ratings-monday-the-voice-hawaii-five-0-up-revolution-2-broke-girls-drop-a-bit-dancing-with-the-stars-partners-the-mob-doctor-fall/150950/
"Vegas", "Private Practice" Ratings:
tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/03/tv-ratings-tuesday-new-girl-steady-raising-hope-debuts-down-hart-of-dixie-debut-solid-ncis-the-mindy-project-down/151317/
"Animal Practice" Ratings:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/04/tv-ratings-wednesday-supernatural-premiere-steadyx-factor-flat-animal-practice-guys-with-kids-up-the-middle-the-neighbors-down-plus-presidential-debate-coverage/151499/
"Last Resort", "The Office", "30 Rock" Ratings:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/05/tv-ratings-thursday-big-bang-theory-wins-night-person-of-interest-glee-two-and-a-half-men-up-greys-anatomy-last-resort-down30-rock-premieres-low/151677/
"Made In Jersey" Ratings:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/06/tv-ratings-friday-shark-tank-rises-wins-night-fringe-down-grimm-steady-made-in-jersey-falls/151819/
I'm picking "The Neighbors","666 Park Avenue" and "Revolution". These are a couple shows that I am forced to watch. I have watched Vegas and I think it pretty much sucks and the acting is not there at all. They hired (type-cast) people to play themselves. It has the depth of Tammi Fays make-up. "Last Resort" in my humble opinion is the only one that has an actual writer. I hope it stays around but it seems to be running out of gas pretty quick as well.
ReplyDeleteThis is a really interesting post. I love watching tv shows fail, as cynical as that sounds, its great.
ReplyDeleteI never was intrigued by Animal Practice, it looked annoying and played out. I agree with you in that it wont last past one season. Your statistics are great, I have no idea what they mean but they make your post seem a lot better and credible. Great job!